Preview Italy v Ireland

On Saturday Ireland have the hardest job of being first up with the chance to win the championship. That is slightly wrong however, because Italy could win on Saturday as well if they beat Ireland and the rest of the results go their way. However, the race is really between Ireland and France ,with England on a outside chance and Italy with a mathematical but highly improbable chance.

I believe that Italy could beat Ireland on Saturday if the play the right type of game. The Italian coach is very clever tactically, as we have send in the 6 nations so far and he will see the opportunity to get at Ireland.

So far Ireland's result, except against England, have been very poor. Wales should have beaten them and would have if they had got the penalty try for taking Czekaj off the ball. France beat them at the death, as Ireland took their metaphorical eye off the ball. Scotland should have beaten them, as Ireland were clearly not up for the game as I discussed in the result post of the Scotland v Ireland match.

So on Saturday away from home against an emergent Italian side with Ireland already won the triple crown, the Grand slam is gone and the French only have Scotland to beat in Paris after a defeat against England. Also knowing that everyone still sees the French as the favourites for the championship, probably including the Irish.

I don't believe the Irish have the right mind set to go to Rome and record a big win. Plus I think the Italians can use the fact they know Ireland must record a big win to tactically out manoeuvre them on the day.

How???

1) Italian Blitz defense is good and can be used to disrupt and upset the Irish back line. Can get at O'Gara and Stringer.

2) Target O'Driscoll, he is injury prone. This is a sound tactical play to remove an oppositions leader. With O'Driscoll out they not only lose their most talented player, but also their captain and talisman.

3) Frustrate Ireland as much as possible. Keep the scores low by playing a very strong defense (as point 1) and wait for Ireland to force the game looking for the big scores, and then exploit the opportunities this will create. Italy will keep the ball in the forwards (their strength) and pound at Ireland slowing down the ball and ruining Irish the game. Tronconn will see the gaps as they appear and give the fast Italian backs a chance to run for or with the ball.

Ireland will be missing O'Connell and the Italians Bergamasco (for taking out the opponents leader!!!).

Also I believe the Italians will be on a high from beating Wales and won't want the last game to be a record defeat at the hands of the Irish.

Ireland will want to make amends for their poor performance from the week before, but most of their players will now be think Heineken Cup and World Cup.

Most of the Strategy for this game will be around the psychology of the two teams. Each side will have plenty of chance to see what the other is capable of and with have planned their tactics appropriately.

Let see what happens. It should make for some interesting viewing for the neutral.

Result Italy 23 - Wales 20

Lets consider the Strategic advantages/dis-advantages of each team going into this game

For Wales a win would have meant avoiding the wooden spoon and a potential humiliation of a white wash sealed by their arch enemy England. Why is this strategic advantage!! The cornered man/army will fight twice as hard as the man/army with an escape route. This situation would have given them some extra drive against the Italians. Now against England on Saturday they will fell even more cornered and will fight much harder as there is no escape route and no second chance.

For the Italians they had done better than before in any 6 nations by winning away from home. This however, meant win or lose they could still hold their heads up high and claim progress at the end of the tournament. This was a potential dis-advantages for Italy as they had an escape route. This was nicely counteracted by the offer of £15k per player if they beat Wales, plus the sell out of all the remaining games with their country men and women fully behind them. They knew they could beat Wales and they had all the reasons to want to beat Wales as well.

Now to the game itself.

The Welsh forwards did complete better than expected and Italian backs also played better than expected against the Welsh. The turning point was the substitutions in the Welsh and Italian forwards. This gave the Italian forwards the clear advantage supplying them with the penalty and and the penalty kick for the line out resulting in the try.

Discussed before about using the expected to met the expected and the unexpected to win. This refers back to the unorthodox and the orthodox methods discussed in the England vs France preview. So you use the expected to met the expected and the unexpected to break the expected.

"Use standard methods to meet everyday challenges
Use unexpected methods to win big breakthroughs"


When Pez chipped the ball over the Welsh line you could see it was an unexpected move as it caught the defense on the back foot. Everyone expected Italy to keep the ball in the forwards trying to use their strength to barrel it over the line. The fact the try was under the posts resulting in a 3 point margin was critical to the controversy that surround the game in the last 10 seconds. Overall even a draw would have been disappointing for Wales and still left the Italians with their best 6 nations so far.

Preview Italy Vs Wales

I think Wales will really struggle against the Italians on Saturday. If the Italian forwards control the ball and starve the Welsh backs of possession and put in some good tactical kicks they have a very real chance of victory. The Welsh pack need to lose some weight if they are to keep up with the pace of the game and secure the ball for their backs. The Welsh backs are slowly getting it together, but can have a tendency to over cook it. They need a bit more direct play at times and be prepared to go to ground with the ball rather than losing it with the constant off loading. Could be they don't trust the support to re-cycle the ball and get it back out again.

I think with the home advantage and the prospect of a fourth place finish the Italians will go hell for leather against the Welsh. I never rated Gareth Jenkins, look how well Phil Davis is doing with the Scarlets since he took over!!!!