Preview Wales v England

For 2008 England v Wales click here


Final game of the 6 nations with both teams having something to play for. For England this could range from 1st to 4th place depending on the other results earlier in the day. For Wales avoiding the white wash and the wooden spoon.

England will be keen to progress from last weeks win and will love the idea of sealing Welsh fate to the white wash and wooden spoon. With Tindall out Matthew Tait has been rewarded with a start, as he has played well as a sub. Tait will be looking forward to banishing those ghosts from 2005 at the Millennium Stadium. He is a bigger, fitter and more rounded player from back then and has grown mentally from that experience. Ashton has cut Lewesy from the squad showing that he will punish bad performances. Leadership is a massive part of strategy and a good leader looks to reward the good (Tait) and punish the bad (Lewsey) to create the right type of team. All leadership books will discuss this point and references to it can be found in "The Prince" and"The Art of War". This was something Andy Robinson failed to do. How often did one of the players have a crap game yet still get picked the next time around (I don't want to mention names), but Andy Robinson definitely had his favourites. More on this after the 6 Nations were I will compare Aston to Robinson style of leadership and its role in strategy.

From Lewseys removal Cueto has been brought in to play at Full back. I find this strange, Lewsey was axed as he played the full back role like a winger, so he swaps one winger with another winger at full back!!!!!! Robinson is the natural full back for his club, allowing Cuteo or Lewsey to play in their natural position on the wing.

For Wales "Captain Crap" is out and James Hook looks to replace him at fly half. Is it just me or does James Hook look like Dean Gaffney?????

Some think this may actually help Wales. Giving Jones the title "Captain Crap" won't help and it gives him a tag of bad omen. Wales will be desperate to avoid the White wash and will give them extra fight on the day. Plus if there is a chance England could win the 6 Nations it will intensive this energy. The Welsh forwards found it difficult to compete against the other 6 nations and in the last 20 minutes are normally worn out leaving the hair bear bunch to prop things up. Wales have been a bit unlucky this year with decision going against them, but still have the players in the backs to cause serious damage. The are gaining ground and it won't surprise anyone for them to put in their best performance against the English. For Wales to win they need the ball in their backs to stand a chance. It will be interesting seeing the Welsh back line up against the new and improve English back line. Strettle put in some ferocious tackles against the French, so it will prove to be an interesting contest.

I believe England will win. Some of this is due to my rose tinted specs, but also they have the form and confidence going into this last game. England squad still need time to gel properly too reach their full potential. The new forwards will look to dominate the game and the new English back line will enjoy a run at the Welsh. The Welsh back line is an attacking force, but in defense they are weak. Like wise the English back line has shown against France they can defend well and they prevented any tries from the French attack, which no one else has done this 6 nations.

If England can get a few earlier scores on Wales then the Welsh team may crumble knowing that they are heading to a white wash and wishing they could get off the pitch as soon as possible. However, if Wales get the early score using the extra energy of avoiding the white wash to England, we could be in for a good fight. I think however, England would still win the game in the last twenty minutes. This appears to be the time when the Welsh slow down and their opponents take full advantage.

Result England 26 - France 18

The surprise result of the tournament so far. There was a number of things England needed to improve from the Ireland game if they were to seriously compete against the French, as discussed in the Preview post. They changed these areas and the team managed to become a unit after only a few hours of training together.

The pack fought well and secured decent ball for the backs. England attacked through the middle giving us the options that lead to the two tries. This was all discussion in Preview on the game about what England needed to do if they were to seriously compete. The fact that the man of the match was a forward shows how well England competed for the ball allowing our backs into the game, more so than any of the previous 6 nations matches this year. This also slowed down the French allowing us to re-group and form a defensive line. How often did you see Dominici with the ball in space??? We needed more pace in the middle that Farrel couldn't supply. Flood, Catt and Geraghty supplied this swiftness and was able to break through the middle setting up options to score the tries. For the first try Flood still had Robinson on his outside. For the second Catt and Tindall supporting Geraghty, plus Lewsey following up on his right hand side.

Corry in the second row was great, he may be to slow as a number 8 at international level, but as a second row he adds an extra dimension to the England squad. The stats show just how well England competed for the ball and how much of the game they controlled. The recycling was so much better and kept the momentum going. When you consider the experience of the back line with Tindall, Catt, Lewsey, Robinson and then add some talented new players trying to make a mark; Strettle (get a hair cut ;)), Flood and Geraghty you get a mix that gives England the right balance. Plus we still have experienced players like Wilkinson and Cuteo to come back.

However, lets not get to carried away. This is new side that may have just surprised the French as they didn't know what to expect, especially with introduction of closed training sessions. Wales next week will of had chance to review the tapes and work out some counter tactics. Plus they will be desperate to avoid the white wash giving them an extra incentive on the day. There are still things England could improve on, as they should always be with any side.

"If you are not going forward you are going backwards, there is no such thing as Static". Not sure where this quote comes from, but it is a key point in Strategy.

I shall write up the preview of the Wales v England later in the week once Brian Ashton picks his squad. Who will be fly-half?? Who will be on the bench??? Will Farrel, Wilkinson and Vickery be back in the side?? Will he reward Catt and Flood places in the starting line up?? With Tindall out we need another centre! It's important to remember that both Flood and Geraghty have played at centre for their respective clubs, so don't be surprised to see Wilkinson at fly half and Flood or Geraghty at centre along side Mike Catt. What about Matthew Tait he has played well as a sub evrey game?? I don't think Geraghty will start at fly-half as his place kicking has been poor in the England Saxon games earlier in the tournament and his kicks to touch where a bit wayward at the end.

It will be interesting this week to see the squad selection and hear the pre-match psychology. The psychology employed before a battle is an important point in strategy texts such as the "Art of War". I will discuss this in more detail on the Preview post before the last games of the 6 nations, but it will be interesting to hear the language of Brian Ashton and Mike Catt/Phil Vickery before the Wales game.

Preview England Vs France

On the face of it France are easily the favourites on Sunday. So far only Ireland have really tested them in the 6 Nations and due to a lack on concentration at the end, let the game slip away from them. You can never write off France until that final whistle has gone and this year they have a real belief in their style of play. They are re-cycling the ball well, have a bruising pack, fast and agile wingers and have a fly-half that can kick their penalties for a change.

In comparison England's forward are slow to the ball resulting in turnovers and the slow ball causes loss of momentum. The centres are slow and one of them is inexperienced at international level in Rugby Union, and it shows in the defensive patterns creating gaps for the opposition. The wingers are fast and could cause some damage if they got decent ball. England's fly half can definite kick the penalties, but still isn't 100% match fit. They have played 3 games together and have little preparation time between games due to the organisational structure of the English rugby. However, England are playing at home and are bound to change their game after the Ireland match, meaning they will present an unexpected dimension to the game (well for the first 20 minutes at least.)

If England are to compete in my opinion this is what we need to change.

1. Get faster guys in the forwards to support and to prevent turnovers and slow ball. Plus in defense slow down their ball and fighting for turnovers.
2. Bring in more speed at the centre of the pitch i.e. Matthew Tait.
3. Remove any defensive frailties i.e. Andy Farrel, a few games in the Saxons side will get him the additional experience he needs.
4. Bring the wingers into the game more, either getting the ball out to them or getting them to come in a get the ball to create extra numbers and put some pace and momentum on the attack.
5. Surprise: Do the unexpected to throw the French off their rhythm.
6. Preparation: Find a way to gel the team.

So how does this relate to strategy.

1. Speed, momentum and surprise are the corner stones of a good attack and therefore preventing these are the corner stone of a good defense as well. They must be carried out in balance with one another.

"When the speed of rushing water reached the point where it can move boulders, this is the force of momentum. When the speed of a hawk is such that it can strike and kill, this is precision. So it is with skillful warriors -- their force is swift, their precision is close. Their force is like drawing a catapult, their precision is like releasing the trigger. " Art of War by Sun Tzu.

"Getting people to fight by letting the force of momentum work is like rolling logs and rocks. Logs and rocks are still when in a secure place, but roll on an incline; they remain stationary if square, they roll if round. Therefore, when people are skillfully led into battle, the momentum is like that of round rocks rolling down a high mountain -- this is force." Art of War by Sun Tzu.

2. Speed through the centres. When attacking through the middle it gives you more options on your next decision. Right, left straight on. Where attacking on the wing leaves you limited to your options of back inside or straight ahead due to the touch line acting as a extra defensive line. You need to, "punch a hole" as my Dad says.

"The condition of a military force is that its essential factor is speed, taking advantage of others' failure to catch up, going by routes they do not expect, attacking where they are not on guard. " Art of War by Sun Tzu.

But be aware of haste and recklessness. Consider your position first, make sure you are in a decent position to enact these moves and that you understand your opponents position as well. So your own 5 meter line may not be the time to try and put too much pace/speed into your game. However, in their half may give you the break through you are looking for to get pass their defense.

"Carrying the feet is important also in large-scale strategy. This is because, if you attack quickly and thoughtlessly without knowing the enemy's spirit, your rhythm will become deranged and you will not be able to win. Or, if you advance too slowly, you will not be able to take advantage of the enemy's disorder, the opportunity to win will escape, and you will not be able to finish the fight quickly. You must win by seizing upon the enemy's disorder and derangement, and by not according him even a little hope of recovery. Practice this well. " The book of Five rings by Miyamoto Musashi.

3. Defense. in strategy you should always attack weakness with strength. The Irish considered the Tindall/Farrel partnership as weakness and O'Driscoll/Darcy as their strength. Farrels lack of commit to the defensive patterns was highlighted during the game by Austin Healy. It was shown how it lead to gaps opening in the English defensive line. Tait showed he can tackle and has more experience than Farrel. Tait fulfils two important criteria for the strategy; speed of attack (swiftness as it is often referred to) and defense.

"Strategy is improving your position as from a better position better opportunities arise".

"A better positions is a position with more options."

Attacking through the middle fulfils these rules.

4 & 5 . We are back to swiftness, momentum and surprise again. Same as before.

With regards bringing in your wingers this helps you outnumber your opponent's and brings in the element of surprise.Tthe idea being the unexpected and expected give you endless possibilities.

"There are only two kinds of charge in battle, the unorthodox surprise attack and the orthodox direct attack, but variations of the unorthodox and the orthodox are endless. The unorthodox and the orthodox give rise to each other, like a beginningless circle -- who could exhaust them?"

"If you can strike few with many, you will thus minimize the number of those with whom you do battle."

6. Preparation. We don't have the time to prepare the team and get them use to playing together. However, we can pick the team around players that are already use to playing together, minimising the impact the lack of preparation has caused. For example Jonny, Toby, Noon and Tait all play together at Newcastle and have an understanding they can bring to England. Also Corry, Chuter, Kay, Ellis all play together at Leicester Tigers.

Summary

There is so much I could write around this subject, but this is blog not an essay so I will keep it short and sweet, and save it for my grand unified theory of rugby. I predict France to win by at least 15 points if we stick to our current style and rhythm of play. If we make some changes that allow us to compete I think we can bring the scores closer, however I doubt we can win this game as France have too many strategic advantages on their side at the moment.

Ireland Vs England

Ireland vs England

A classic match and some great examples of classic strategy. Strategy isn’t just about what happens on the field it is about the whole picture. So this includes leadership, organisational structure, planning/preparation and leveraging your environment. I feel these areas of strategy had a big impact on the game as much as the on field action.

Leadership. Brain Ashton and Phil Vickery has only just taken over and the team is only just beginning to gel. In comparison to the length and strength of the Irish leadership that has been running for the last few years. I am not saying that the English guys are bad leaders they just haven’t had the team to make an impact yet. Plus captain of country but not at club is an interesting situation.

Organisational Structure. Basically we are talking about the whole club vs country row the structure of who has overall control of the English players. Plus what does Rob Andrew actually do? Who is in charge?

Preparation. Strategy texts state that battles are not won on the field, but in the HQ. In other words the planning and preparation is everything without them you are at an extreme disadvantage. This comes back to the club vs country row with the English players only having 2 training session prior to the game. This in comparison to the Irish whom with their central contracts had 2 weeks preparation time.

Leveraging your environment: It was an historic day with England playing at Croke park and the Irish players and crowd were sweating pure passion, and demanding a victory over the English. Strategy says to choose the were, the when of a battle and use the climate to your advantage. Games venues and times are obviously decided in advance, but home games are a definite advantage. With the home game you can set up the pitch to your style of play and you know the dimensions and markers around the pitch you can use them to gauge your position. You also know the ground and will feel at home giving you one less worry on the day. An example in football is Real Madrid whom like to put a small layer of water on the pitch as it helps a quicker passing game. The crowd can also motivate your side and de-motivate the opposition. The added historical importance of the day also had a huge impact ensuring the Irish players and crowd were pumped up for the match. In comparison the English players had been given history lessons into the tragic events that had happened at the site. This was bound to have positive impact for the Irish and a negative impact on the English players.

All this before the game has even kicked off, makes you realize the power of strategy when so much can be done in advance to achieve your mission.

Now finally the game itself.

England lost the competition in the forwards and at the breakdowns. Everyone has already said this, so it isn't much of a surprise. You basically can't win the game if you haven't got the ball. The Irish turned us over and slowed us down at the breakdown slowing down our momentum or swinging the momentum to their favour. We need a more mobile pack to compete at the break downs and support the players making the breaks. "Move out of old positions slowly and into new positions quickly" Art of War by Sun Tzu. You need to consider your defence when you attack. In this case the players behind the player making the break need to provide that defence by providing support to the player at the breakdown ,or to keep the move going by taking the pass and ensuring momentum is retained.

Now the backs didn't really get much of a go with the ball especially on a wet day and with poor ball. Like I said the momentum had been lost and the Irish defensive line re-established, meaning the English players were starting all over again ever time trying to break through a organised defense. Mr Austin Healey pointed at that Andy Farral wasn't keeping to the defensive patterns allowing the gaps to appear meaning the Irish could take advantage. I think he needs some more experience, so playing for the Saxons for the rest of the games may be a good idea. Just like the pack we need speed in our backs, as speed, momentum and surprise are essentials of a good attack. So at centre Matthew Tait could answer this need for speed, plus he can now tackle.
I will write a more detailed blog prior to the French game about what I think we need to change in the England side to stand a chance of victory over the French.

An interesting result the week before was Ireland A 0 - England Saxons 32.
This goes to show the differences in the depth in squads between the two countries. Also I don't believe many of the Irish A players have central contracts so probably only had the same preparation time as the England Saxon side. This gave our players a more level playing field when encountering their Irish counterparts.